BetUK Blog

Friday is men’s semi-final day at Wimbledon and while we see Roger Federer coming through his semi against Tommy Haas the German player will be no pushover. Although Fed leads Haas 11-3 in their meetings last time they played, on the clay at Roland Garros in Paris last month, the German took Fed to five sets, winning the first two. Friday’s match too could be a close one.

Haas is a much better player and in better form than his world rank of 34 suggests and thanks to good performances here, in Halle and at Roland Garros, he is sure to be moving up the rankings in the near future. The 31-year old is the oldest player left in the draw and has also been involved in the highest number of tie-breaks (5) of the remaining four players. He has won seven of his 10 tie-breaks on grass this year.

This suggests he is well capable of taking a set or more off Federer so for betting purposes we like backing Federer to win 3-1 and 3-2, at 11/4 and 9/1 respectively with BetUK.

At Wimbledon today we really fancy Amelie Mauresmo to beat Dinara Safina, the World No 1, currently 6/5 with BetUK. Mauresmo is playing better then she has in a while and Safina has always had a rough time at Wimbledon, never getting past this stage of the tournament before. Mauresmo, however, has gone all the way and won the women’s singles title back in 2006. “Momo” seems to come alive at Wimbledon and should be able to beat Safina with conditions in her favour.

Brazil are unsurprisingly a hot favourite (2/5 with BetUK) to claim their third Confederations Cup on Sunday (7.30 UK time) but the Samba boys will certainly not be taking the USA lightly in Johannesburg. After all, the Americans despatched Spain in the semis so Brazil won’t be taking any chances.

Brazil were lethargic in their semi-final against hosts South Africa, and were lucky to escape thanks to Dani Alves’s brilliant 88th minute free-kick. Just six attempts on goal were created and if the star trio of Kaka, Robinho and Luis Fabiano struggled against the South Africans then they could find it even harder against the Americans, who have a tough back-line to crack. We reckon goals could be in short supply here so are recommending backing under 2.5 goals at 17/20 with BetUK. Although Brazil could run away with it if they score early it’s worth betting against this as they seem to be adopting a more cautious approach lately.

If the Americans do throw everything into their defence again then a Half-Time/Full-Time selection of Draw/Brazil at 67/20 is also a very interesting option from a betting perspective, as it could take a while before Kaka and Co find the net.

At Wimbledon today we really fancy Rainer Schuettler to beat Dudi Sela. Schuettler lost last year at Wimbledon to Nadal in semi-finals and after a laboured first round game we expect him to come out motivated and focused this time.

Although Sela is ahead 2-0 in the pair’s head-to-head record, with one of those wins coming this year at the Australian Open in four sets, it is Schuettler who is much better suited to grass. He’s won 33 of his 57 matches on grass and as last year’s deep run in this tournament shows he is very at home in SW19.

Schuettler has a big first serve and is solid from behind the baseline. Ok, he’s not the most agile guy in the world, which is where Sela has a slight advantage, but the weakness in Sela’s game is that his serve can desert him at times and that will tend to create openings for break points.

Take the 2/5 on Schuettler to beat Sela with BetUK and to make life interesting why not put him in a double with Janko Tipsarevic (who can beat Mardy Fish) at 11/10.

Spain are breaking records for fun at the moment and it’s hard to see the USA producing anything capable of stopping the juggernaut when they meet in the Confederations Cup semi-finals on Wednesday night. Not only are the Spanish on a world record run of 15 consecutive victories, but avoiding defeat in this match would also set a new all-time record for unbeaten matches – they are currently level with Brazil on 35. They won all three of their group games, scoring eight goals and conceding none, while strikers Fernando Torres and David Villa both have three goals apiece. However, at 1/4 for Spain to win this match in 90 minutes we are not going to get rich so it is worth pursuing value in other markets.

Not only do Torres, Villa and Co wreak havoc on opposition defences going forward, but Iker Casillas, Gerard Pique and Carlos Puyol have put together a very effective partnership in defence. They haven’t conceded a goal in this tournament to date and in their 35 match unbeaten run, a clean sheet has been kept in a remarkable 25 of these fixtures (over 70%). It is worth trying to capitalise on this by backing Spain in a couple of likely scorelines. We favour backing them to win 2-0 and 3-0 at odds of 5/1 and 7/1 respectively with BetUK.

For the next two weeks this blog will be concentrating on Wimbledon where there are some great prices to be had. Today’s tip is to back Vince Spadea (USA) in his first round clash with Paul Capdeville (CHI). Both of these players are baseliners and neither are particularly good on grass as Spadea tends to favour the hard courts while Capdeville the clay you find in South America.

While they are pretty evenly matched on the odds (Spadea is 8/11 with BetUK while his opponent is evens) Capdeville’s stats on grass are a lot worse than Spadea’s so the nod goes to the American player. The Chilean will be playing his first ever Wimbledon singles match of his career having lost in qualifying the previous four years, while this will be Spadea’s thirteenth career Wimbledon main draw event and he even got as far as the last 16 in 2004.

So, after 26 matches, it will be Pakistan and Sri Lanka who contest the second World Twenty20 final when play begins today at Lord’s (3pm).

Sri Lanka have been the best team in the tournament – failing to lose a game – while Pakistan have been one of the most exciting and lived up to their reputation as statistically the best side in this format. We hope you took our advice in the post of 11 June and backed Sri Lanka all the way through the Super Eights.

It is a testament to the quality of the teams that for the final we have one of the closest betting heats from the 27 matches. With BetUK Sri Lanka are 6/5 while Pakistan are 8/13.

Fair enough one could say given that both would appear to play the game with the same fearless verve. There is nothing to separate them on historic head-to-heads with two wins each and so dominant have they been that their bowlers are jostling for space at the top of the wicket-taking charts.

The story is not quite the same when it comes to batting. Sri Lanka have three men in the top 10 runscorers (Tillakaratne Dilshan, Sanath Jayasuriya and Mahela Jayawardene) and Pakistan have only one (Younis). So, if we can surmise that both are as good as each other with the ball then we are happy to recommend Sri Lanka to win this match on the basis their superior batting. When these sides met in the Super Eight stage Sri Lanka were the comfortable winners, and for our money Sri Lanka are still the ones to be on. Take the 6/5 with BetUK.

The King’s Stand Stakes went to Australia thanks to Scenic Blast and today’s Group 1 sprint, the Golden Jubilee Stakes (3.45), could be bound for either South Africa or Hong Kong, courtesy of J J The Jet Plane or Sacred Kingdom.

There is precious little between them on form - and it might be worth backing one and saving on the other - but if pressed to split them we reckon J J The Jet Plane is the one based on his runaway defeat of smart rivals under a big penalty at Windsor.

There are three Guineas heroines and last year’s champion juvenile filly lining up in Friday’s Coronation Stakes (3.45) at Royal Ascot so it’s fair to say it will settle a lot of arguments.

The Irish 1000 Guineas winner Again lines up as does English 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati and the French 1000 Guineas winner Elusive Wave. Added to these Rainbow View will run although her scintillating 2008 form has to be tempered by the fact that she hasn’t reproduced that level this season.

For our money Ghanaati and Elusive Wave are the ones to concentrate on here as there form is superior, and there won’t be much between them in the market. A strong gallop, more or less assured here, would probably be ideal for Ghanaati. She settled matters decisively up the hill at Newmarket and with just three runs on the board it could well be that we have still to see the very best of her - so we are happy to recommend her in this Group 1 showpiece.

The feature race of the day at Royal Ascot is the Gold Cup (3.45) over two and a half miles. Of course all of the pre-race build-up has surrounded 3-time Gold Cup winner Yeats but his run has to end sometime and in Patkai there is an animal with the potential to finally lower the great 8 year-olds colours. Ryan Moore’s mount clearly absolutely loves the track, having won the Queen’s Vase by 7 lengths last year and absolutely hacked up in the Woodcote (9 length win) back in April before coming second to Geordieland in the Henry II at Sandown last month. He didn’t get the ideal run that day and back in Berkshire I think the rest could find him very difficult to beat. At 3/1 with BetUK he is a decent price.