BetUK Blog

Portsmouth play host to UEFA Cup favourites AC Milan tonight – and could lose convincingly. Ok, it could be that Pompey are facing a second-string side but with Ronadinho, Kaka and Pirlo having made the trip that might not be the case.

With two wins so far in the group, Milan know another here will put them into the knockout stages and even possibly win them the group. Portsmouth, meanwhile, have lost their only game so far – 3-0 away to Portugal’s Guimares – which leaves them needing something in this one.

But with injury forcing out leading scorer Jermain Defoe and captain Sol Campbell, Lassana Diarra and Niko Kranjcar all doubtful, we feel that AC Milan should win this by at least a two-goal margin.

You can see BetUK’s range of prices on this game here.

Tonight’s Champions League game between Villarreal and Manchester United is effectively a dead rubber and there probably won’t be many goals. Both teams are within touching distance of the knockout stage of the Champions League and both can qualify this evening with a draw, irrespective of the result between Aalborg and Celtic. So the draw at 7/4 on BetUK looks like the bet to make.

Further strengthening our selection is the fact that Villarreal have never lost a Champions League game at home while United are unbeaten in their last eight away Champions League fixtures. Invariably, when a stalemate would suit both sides, it’s rare to see the players putting life and limb on the line when it’s all square with half an hour to go.

We also think betting on a 0-0 scoreline at 11/2 is also worthwhile. These sides have met three times in European competition and there has yet to be a goal in over 270 minutes of football, including the 0-0 at Old Trafford. Furthermore, four of Villarreal’s five matches against English sides have been drawn 0-0!

Everton have finally found their stride and are currently on a five game unbeaten run with three wins from their last four. David Moyes’ side are 4th in the form table (last six results) with successive wins against Bolton (1-0), Fulham (1-0) and West Ham (3-1) followed by a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough taking them up to 7th in the league and just four points from a Champions League spot. Their away form is very solid too, with four wins from six putting them 4th in an away table, and they have recorded consecutive wins over Bolton and West Ham in their last two trips on the road.

So if the form guide in tonight’s Premier League clash points to Everton, how about the head-to-head record? Again, the visitors have lost just one of six games against this opposition since Wigan’s promotion in 2005/06, the full record reading: P6-W3-D2-L1-F9-A6. At the JJB it is even better, with David Moyes unbeaten here in three outings, with two wins and a draw including a 2-1 victory here last season.

So all in all, having a bet on Everton to win at 6/4 with BetUK looks the best value here.

Manchester United have such a dominating record against Aston Villa in recent times that it is difficult to see how the hosts will even get a point against them this weekend.

Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have won their last 14 consecutive games against this opposition (yes, 14) and their last 8 in a row at Villa Park where Saturday’s game will be played. The last time United even dropped points here was in the 2001/02 season. Villa haven’t actually triumphed over United since back in August 1995 and O’Neill’s reign has been more of the same, with 0-3 and 1-4 home defeats coupled with 3-1 and 4-0 setbacks at Old Trafford.

Given these factors, a price of 4/5 with BetUK on United winning their 9th consecutive game on this ground looks fantastic value.

With Liverpool’s Steven Gerrard yesterday confirmed as another big-name absentee from the England squad for Wednesday’s tough international friendly against Germany things are looking pretty bleak for the Three Lions.

But it is defensively that manager Fabio Capello is really feeling the pinch with skipper John Terry rated only 50-50 to start because of a foot injury. Rio Ferdinand, Wes Brown and Ashley Cole are already sidelined so if Terry misses out, Capello will start without his entire preferred back four against a side who reached the final of Euro 2008 and the semi-finals of the 2006 World Cup.

I’m afraid to say this one looks like going Germany’s way! Taking BetUK’s 11/10 on Germany is the value bet to make here.

Sunday’s live game on Sky (4pm K/O) sees Manchester City travel to this season’s surprise package - Hull. From a psychological point of view Hull have a distinct advantage, because they were preparing for a dogfight from the moment promotion to the Premier League was won. A run of three straight defeats is disappointing for them – but mentally the players have always expected that type of run of results. The same cannot be said for City’s players, who appear ill-equipped for a trip to an unwelcoming venue to face physical, resilient hosts, as awaits them here.

Taking all factors into account we make Hull narrow favourites – which is why the 17/10 available on BetUK is terrific value. Man City are an implausibly short 7/5, with the draw at 9/4 so the the price on the hosts looks too good to miss.

An even better bet than a home victory, however, is over 2.5 goals. Such an outcome has been a consistent feature of games involving these two sides this season – 20 of 24 relevant fixtures (10 out of 12 games for both Hull and Man City) have had three goals or more this season, making the price of 4/5 on overs tremendous value. Even looking solely at Hull’s home games and Man City’s away games, the stats stand up: four of Hull’s six fixtures at the KC Stadium and four of City’s six games on the road have had over 2.5 goals.

Bolton play host to Liverpool this Saturday and the result should comfortably go the Reds’ way here. Bolton may be in a mid-table position at the moment but they actually lie only two points above the relegation zone and just three points ahead of bottom-placed West Brom. With England’s top division as tight as it’s ever been, Gary Megson’s side know a single defeat can see them plummet into trouble. Unfortunately, lose is exactly what they’re likely to do here

Bolton’s games are often thought to be among the lowest-scoring in the Premier League – and that’s borne out by the fact that each of their last five fixtures have had under 2.5 goals, with three of those matches having under 1.5 goals. But their defensive vulnerability against the very best opponents like Liverpool puts us off this bet in this game - and over 2.5 goals looks the more likely result here.

It’s UEFA Cup night and Manchester City entertain Dutch club FC Twente, now run by dismal failure ex-England coach Steve McClaren. Although he was spotted in the crowd at Manchester City’s visit to Bolton Wanderers last Sunday, in which City crashed to a 2-0 defeat, in our opinion there’s very little chance that McClaren and FC Twente will pick up anything in this game tonight.

City’s better players tend to raise their game on a European night. The opportunity to prove themselves at continental level will bring out the best in players used to performing either for bigger clubs, for some of the world’s best national teams, or both. That may not have been the case in the competition so far – City laboured to a 4-2 aggregate victory over Cyprus’ Omonia Nicosia in the last round – but the more the competition progresses, the more the players will respond to the challenge. City are certainly capable of turning on the style on home soil, evidenced by 3-0, 6-0 and 3-0 wins over West Ham, Portsmouth and Stoke respectively this season.

Expect Man City to dominate tonight and back them to win by at least a 2-goal margin.

Manchester United are on the road tonight as they travel to Glasgow for their latest Champions League encounter with Celtic. We have been scrabbling around for the value and can’t look beyond betting on under 2.5 goals tonight at Celtic Park at 1.8.

Celtic’s home record is built on an incredible defensive record, with a quite stunning 12/18 clean sheets being kept in Glasgow. As a result, 10 of those 18 games have filled the under 1.5 quote and this continued on Match Day 1 with the 0-0 draw against Aalborg.

United are hardly generous at the back themselves and a record of 6 goals conceded in 13 European games last season made them the competition’s best defence – they are also yet to concede in this season’s Group Stages.

Of course, any team with the embarrassment of attacking riches United have are capable of cutting loose but last season they notched just 9 goals in 6 away games and coupled with the atmosphere of a classic British European tie, we wouldn’t expect goals to be in plentiful supply tonight.

This Champions’ League encounter is a potentially tricky fixture for Liverpool against an attacking line-up featuring the likes of Aguero, Diego Forlan, Simao and Maxi Rodriguez but at Anfield we feel the hosts should edge this.

Liverpool were were unlucky to lose at Spurs at the weekend after dominating possession and territory for much of the game. And at home the 2005 Champions have shown no signs of being derailed – they are unbeaten in their last 18 in all competitions and have won 7 of 8 on Merseyside this season.

Furthermore, Liverpool’s home record in the Group Stages of the Champions’ League under Benitez is highly impressive – just one defeat in 13 and clean sheets kept in 8 (61%) of these. The full record reads: P13, W9, D3, L1, F31, A6 (although don’t forget the 8-0 win over Besiktas skews the goals for column somewhat).

This season has been no exception, with a comfortable 3-1 win over PSV and a memorable 2-1 win over Man Utd earlier in the season demonstrating that Anfield is a very tough place to play football this season. And, of course, the possible return of Fernando Torres (70% according to Benitez) will create an extra special atmosphere as he faces his boyhood club for the first time.