BetUK Blog

Man Utd play purs in the FA Cup live on ITV at 5.15pm this evening. The major problem with getting involved in the match odds here is team selection. United are in the midst of an injury crisis and finished the Carling Cup game against Derby with just 10 men – they are particularly light in defence, with Jonny Evans, Rio Ferdinand, Patrice Evra and Rafael all out.

But this can be taken advantage of in other areas – in the domestic cups this term United have been over 2.5 goals in 4/6 games while Spurs have been over in all six of their cup fixtures to date. So we could see a flurry of goals at Old Trafford this evening. You can bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.80 with BetUK and this looks like a decent betting proposition.

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Tottenham take a 4-1 lead to Burnley tonight in this Carling Cup clash and are 5/4 favourites for victory, though they hardly inspire confidence after a six game winless run in the Premier League. They have had defeats at Wigan (0-1), West Brom (0-2) and Newcastle (1-2) in their last three away games. That’s truly terrible form!

From a punting point of view betting on the Spurs win makes no appeal. The chances are Harry Redknapp’s team will play safe, be happy to preserve their three-goal lead, and play unflashy, conservative football. Let’s face it: their strikers are hardly on fire in front of the goal anyway.

We wouldn’t be surprised if Redknapp rests some key players too as Spurs will need to be firing on all cylinders to have any chance against Man Utd in the FA Cup on Saturday (a trophy Redknapp won last year with former team Portsmouth).

Burnley are 21/10 to beat Spurs but four successive league defeats (including their last two at home) means Owen Coyle’s side are in similarly poor form to their visitors. The 4-1 mauling at White Hart Lane two weeks ago does not bode well for them here, especially with Jermain Defoe now playing for the Lillywhites once again.

With three goals to claw back you would expect Burnley to come out of the traps fired up and we can easily see them scoring the first goal. Perhaps this goal will come towards the end of the first half. Should this scenario play out then it would be well worth a small bet on Burnley/Draw in the half-time/full-time market at 14/1 with BetUK.

Tonight’s Premier League clash between Liverpool and Everton could be pretty close and the value from a betting perspective looks to be on the draw. Home side Liverpool are favourites, of course, but at 3/5 they are an ‘avoid’. Given their recent performances including 0-0 at Stoke last weekend and the fact they’ve won ‘only’ six of 10 league games at Anfield this season and you can see that this price is not great value.

When you consider Everton’s superb away record – seven wins, one draw and just two defeats in 10 trips – not to mention their recent form and the fact they’ve earned a point on four of their last seven treks across to Anfield, the value in this game clearly lies with the visitors. We’re not confident enough in Everton to back them to win at 5/1, but the draw at 5/2 with BetUK looks an excellent bet.

Spurs manager Harry Redknapp is dominating the build-up to this match – but come the final whistle the clash will have provided more pointers as to how far Portsmouth have fallen since Tony Adams took over the managerial hot-seat from Redknapp.

The sense that Adams is out of his depth is becomingly increasing hard to ignore. Two wins from 11 Premier League games, a series of baffling outbursts in the press that seem more about personal validation than anything else and the haste with which Jermain Defoe was keen to leave all hint at a man who will be a short-term member of the Premier League managerial pack.

We strongly fancy Redknapp to get the better of his former deputy today. The Tottenham boss is the best-placed man in the land to nullify whatever threats Portsmouth may pose – because he knows the Pompey players better than anybody else. He also has one priceless tool that Adams has yet to discover and that’s the power to motivate his players.

You can bet Tottenham’s players in general, and Defoe in particular, will be determined to show their boss he made the right choice by switching to White Hart Lane – and you can also be sure that psychologically speaking this will be a very difficult game for several of Portsmouth’s players, who probably wish Redknapp was giving them their pre-match team talk.

So, with Spurs having a significant psychological edge, it worth having a lumpy bet on them to beat Portsmouth, available at 1.65 with BetUK.

In the Premier League this season a few stats have emerged to bear in mind when making your bets.

Firstly, home half-time wins are down 10% on the five year average of 36% and that is also reflected in the number of single goal home wins, which have risen to 60% from 48% with two goal margin wins suffering the most, falling by 9% to 22%.

Also, games with more than 2.5 goals have risen by 8% to 54% this season. In fact only three leagues - Serie A, Super League (Greece) and Super Liga (Portugal) -  have suffered significant falls.

Chelsea travel to the Essex coast tonight for an FC Cup replay with tiddlers Southend. We are expect many goals and the bet to make here is on under 2.5/3 goals with BetUK at 9/10.

The Blues have scored under 2.5 goals in 5/11 away league games and haven’t scored in two of their last three on the road. Granted, these were at Goodison Park and Old Trafford but Didier Drogba looks bored at present and Nicolas Anelka is off the boil/sulking after not starting any of his side’s last three games.

But Southend are also a crucial element in this bet being a good shout: 7/11 (64%) of their home games have been under 2.5 (and four of their last five) with an average of 2.18 goals per game scored this season.

Fulham are proving a real goldmine for goals market enthusiasts this season. The Londoners’ miserly defence and mis-firing forward line have made for a fantastic betting proposition this term and so long as Roy Hodgson can keep hold of Brede Hangeland and Jimmy Bullard (who has had more shots off goal than any other player in the Premier League) in January then this should continue right through to the end of the campaign.

Fulham games have averaged just 1.68 goals per game this season, with 18 scored and just 14 conceded in their 19 outings to date. And while there are usually under 2.5 goals at Craven Cottage (2.16 on average), it is away from home where they are ultra-reliant for a low goals backer.

Since an opening day 1-2 defeat to Hull, eight consecutive Fulham away games have seen two goals or less, with the last four in a row ending 0-0! An average of 0.88 away goals in every away game must be as dull as watching paint dry for the travelling fans but with under 2.5 prices rarely less than 8/11, you can usually be sure of value when Hodgson’s charges play away from the Cottage.

Most of the negative Chelsea attention this season has been surrounding their less than stellar home record, with just four victories from 10 at Stamford Bridge to date. While the bookies have also noticed their sensational away form (let’s forget about yesterday’s 3-0 drubbing by Manchester United for the time being) and are usually short enough on the Blues to win away from home (8 wins from 11 this season), there is still a real niche in the market for backing John Terry and Co to keep a clean sheet on their travels.

Eight shut-outs in 11 away games to date would suggest this eventuality should be a short odds-on price. Not so! Against Blackburn it was a best-priced Evens, with 6/5 offered at Everton and even at West Brom, who have scored just 16 goals in 20 games, the Blues were 8/13 not to concede. While their next two away games are at Liverpool and Aston Villa, getting involved in Chelsea’s away games at smaller sides later on this season could be a nice earner.

Since the 2003/04 Season and the birth of the ‘Big Four’, one of the most common sights in Premier League betting has been the short prices on Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool at home to non big-four sides. In the past, these prices have generally been justifiable: in 2006/07, 73% of such games ended in home wins and in 2007/08 that figure rose to 77%.

However, this season has seen a marked shift in results and so far just 64% of home big four games have actually ended with the ‘predictable’ outcome. While United still usually oblige at Old Trafford, winning seven of eight games against minnows, the other three sides have only won in 14 of 24 home games, or just 58%. It is worth bearing this stat in mind if you are ever in the mood to pile into any of these teams to win at home at 1/5.

Manchester United pay a visit to Derby today in a Carling Cup clash that feels a bit like David v Goliath. Perahps the key to betting on this fixture could well be United’s fantastic defence, which hasn’t conceded a goal in the three fixtures played since returning from Japan in December. We see the most likely scorelines here being 2-0 and 3-0 to United, available with BetUk at 5/1 and 9/1 respectively.

The Reds have kept clean sheets in 11 of their last 14 games and the last three in a row which were all in Rio Ferdinand’s absence – so don’t let his unavailability put you off. Also, Derby’s forwards have hardly done anything in recent weeks to believe that they could be a threat to the United defence. Just one goal in their last three league games is clearly woeful and they have actually failed to score at all in nine of their 26 Championship fixtures.