BetUK Blog

Aston Villa have it all to do on Thursday evening when they face CSKA Moscow in the second leg of their last-32 UEFA Cup clash in Moscow. Villa not only have the difficult task of playing on an artificial surface but the temperature is forecast to be around -5. What makes matters worse is that Martin O’Neill is sending out a ‘B’ team.

Manager O’Neill appears to have written off the Uefa Cup and seems to be concentrating on a top-four finish in the Premier League and therefore a place in next season’s Champions League.

All this being the case the odds of 1/2 on last season’s Russian Premier League runners-up doing the business on home soil looks inviting.

Tottenham have been too bad to be true playing away recently and until they ‘up’ their game they have to be taken on. They have lost their last six consecutive away games and a mid-week Uefa Cup clash in the Ukraine is a prospect Harry Redknapp will be dreading. To say his players won’t be up for it is probably an understatement.

That said, Shakhtar’s form this season has been pretty shaky and Spurs will find themselves playing against a team that is down at 5th place in the Ukrainian league. They have drawn seven of their 17 league games to date and their difficulty in finishing games will not have been helped by the departure of their Brazilian striker Brandao, who has gone to Marseille.

However, Ukrainian sides remain formidable at home, especially in the current brutally cold conditions, so they start as 3/4 favourites and we fully expect them to win here. It is worth having a lumpy bet.

Aston Villa play host to CSKA Moscow tonight in a Uefa Cup clash and despite the home team being 19/20 favourites we don’t think the Russian side will roll over easily.

Martin O’Neill’s team, of course, have been outstanding in the Premier League this season. Lying third in the Premiership table Villa had been on an impressive 11 game unbeaten run in all competitions until Everton ended the streak at the weekend with a 3-1 FA Cup win at Goodison Park.

Meanwhile CSKA Moscow were the only side to win all four of their group games (scoring 12 goals) and have the competition’s top scorer (Vagner Love) playing for them. O’Neill said yesterday that while it is not essential to win this first leg it is important to keep CSKA goaless. It could therefore pay to back the O’Neill gameplan and bet on Villa to nick this one late in the game, having played very conservatively early on. We favour betting on Draw/Aston Villa in the half-time/full-time market at 7/2.

Wednesday night sees Fulham travel north to Old Trafford for a Premier League encounter with Manchester United. It will be extremely difficult for the west London team to avoid losing this match – and the chances are United will win this to nil.

The Reds have played 11 at home this season and have won every game apart from one, when Newcastle drew 1-1 with them in the opening game of the season. They have won their last six consecutive home league games without conceding a goal, have won their last nine matches in a row (all competitions) and haven’t let in a Premier League goal for 13 matches. So, you can see how Fulham are really up against it here.

But there is very little value in piling in at skinny odds on the United win at 2/9. Much better value, if like us you are convinced that Fulham won’t score, to bet on a couple of likely scorelines. We favour betting on the Reds to triumph here 1-0 or 2-0, which can both be backed at 5/1 with BetUK.

The stats strongly suggest an Arsenal victory tonight as Premier League sides have hosted Championship teams in 21 FA Cup replays since 2001/02 and the higher-rated team has progressed 18 times (W17-D2-L2), with the double result (W/W) occurring on 14 occasions.

However, without key players such as Fabregas and Walcott, Arsenal are not firing and it could pay to bet on the draw at 16/5 with BetUK. The Londoners have won just 4 out of 10 games since Fabregas’ injury in December and have scored just one goal in their last four fixtures.

If Arsenal are going to win they might just squeak it 1-0, a scoreline that can be backed at 11/2.

The Grand National weights were published this week so the build-up to this year’s big race in Liverpool on 4 April has officially begun. It is the biggest betting event of the year in the UK and over £250m will be wagered on the outcome.

When the weights are published it is always a good idea to try and grab some early value by having a few antepost punts. When choosing which horses to back it is worth considering a few trends that all Grand National winners over the last decade have had. Make sure that your selection:

* Is aged between 8 and 12 (10 winners in last 10 runnings)
* Ran at least ten times over fences (10/10)
* Officially rated at least 136 - but no more than 149 (10/10)
* Carried no more than 11st 1lb (10/10)
* Won over at least 3 miles, (10/10)
* Achieved a chase Racing Post Rating of at least 144 (10/10)
* Ran between four and six times since the start of August (10/10)
* Won a Class 1 or 2 chase (10/10)

Although there are still 122 horses left in the race (a maximum of 40 will run on the day) only a few of these tick all the required boxes. So, if you want to grab some early value why not bet on the following horses, which appear to tick all the above trends: Rambling Minster and Cornish Sett. They are priced at 33/1 and 40/1 respectively with BetUK. If either one of them should win don’t say we didn’t tell you!

The best betting option in tonight’s Spain/England friendly appears to be in backing under 2/2.5 goals with BetUK at 17/20. No doubt the attacking talent in the Spanish side will make some punters nervous about this, but International friendlies at this time of year have a very strong tendency to be low-scoring affairs. This is no doubt because it is a crucial part of the domestic season for Europe’s top clubs.

In Spain’s last three friendlies played in February or March, all of them have seen under 2.5 goals (including a 1-0 win in England in 2007), as well as consecutive 1-0 wins over Italy and France last year. For England this trend extends even further: five of their last seven friendlies played at this time of year since 2004 have seen two goals or less, and every time when they have played a ‘strong’ side (France, Spain, Holland and Portugal) games saw just four goals between them.

Russia boss Guus Hiddink has been approached to take over as Chelsea coach until the end of the season. Chelsea hope to confirm the Dutchman’s appointment by the weekend after sacking Luiz Felipe Scolari on Monday.

Hiddink, 62, who has close links with Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich, said if it was any other club his answer would be a straight ‘no’. But, he said, Chelsea is different because he has good relations with the owner.

The Blues take on Championship strugglers Watford in the FA Cup fifth round on Saturday, and the plan is for Hiddink to be in place in time for the game.

In Setanta’s 5.30pm game on Saturday Portsmouth play host to Liverpool and for betting purposes you have to get behind the latter. It’s difficult to overstate the lack of confidence in the Portsmouth dressing room at the moment – key players have reportedly voiced their concerns’ about Adams’ managerial credentials, and the contrast with the buoyant, forward-looking place the club was under former boss Harry Redknapp will be playing on minds throughout the squad. It’s one thing expecting to be in a relegation battle all along; but it’s quite another to be unexpectedly thrust into one on the back of a managerial change and the sale of a couple of players (Lassana Diarra and Jermain Defoe).

Liverpool legs may be tired but their focus will be firmly on the Premier League following their FA Cup exit. The 7/10 on the Reds to claim all three points may look a little short, so instead we prefer backing Liverpool to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 at 29/20 with BetUK. Pompey’s attack has managed just two goals in four games against Premier League opponents – and, without Defoe, there’s a lack of a cutting edge. David Nugent has done well, scoring two goals in his last two league appearances, but it’s another leap to score against one of the best defences in the division.

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The RBS Six Nations Championship kicks off on Saturday and in our opinion betting on France to win is the best bet. On paper France offer the most serious challenge to Wales’ crown but it remains to be seen if they can perform consistently over a significant period of time.

The object of much finger pointing and criticism last season, the French scrum has come on in leaps and bounds, as demonstrated by their demolishing of the same Wallaby pack that dominated England in November.

But for all their talent, France’s success in this year’s Six Nations will come down to their tactical choices. In last year’s tournament, France’s game plan changed more often than a teenage girl’s outfit before a big date, leaving observers and even a couple of players scratching their heads. The time for experimentation is over. Victory is the only option.

France have all the ingredients needed to go all the way. While they have an unfavourable draw with three away games, potentially the most important match of all, against Wales on February 27, will be played at the Stade de France. With Wales shouldering the weight of expectation after last year’s Grand Slam and England still finding their feet under Martin Johnson, France could well lead the way.

At 3/1 with BetUK France have to be the value in the outright market.

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