BetUK Blog

Manchester’s light-welterweight king Ricky Hatton fights Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand Casino in the early hours of Sunday morning, UK time. It should be a fascinating contest and here at BetUK we fancy Hatton to win it on points (available at 11/2 with BetUK). Hatton has taken his career to new heights with his new trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr and a more professional, healthy approach to living between fights.

Although Pacquiao is extremely fast for our money Hatton, who has a height advantage, will wear him down and win on a points decision. Hatton is bigger and stronger than Pacquiao and if the referee lets him fight his fight, which is a rough, dirty, pub-brawl type of fight, he should definitely be able to come through. It will be a hard-fought encounter though and almost certainly the most difficult fight of Hatton’s career.

In tonight’s Champions League semi-final (1st leg) between Manchester United and Arsenal the stats favour both teams scoring. Big Four teams have clashed 22 times in all competitions in the past 13 months, and no fewer than 19 of those matches have seen both teams score. Indeed, there have been seven Big Four encounters in the Champions League since the start of last season, and both teams have scored in each of those matches.

Manchester United’s recent defensive frailty has led to both teams scoring in four of their last five matches at Old Trafford in the Premiership. The Red Devils have played just two first leg matches in Manchester in the past three seasons, and both games saw both teams score at least two goals apiece. United’s 2-2 draw with Porto in early April was prefigured by the concession of six goals in two Premier League encounters, a vulnerability that appears to remain on the evidence of Saturday’s league game with Tottenham.

Similarly, both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal’s last 10 games on the road in the Premier League, and four of their last six Champions League games away from the Emirates. In fact, all four of Arsenal’s all-English affairs in this competition has seen both teams score.

As it will be so tight we think punters can grab some value by betting on both the 1-1 scoreline and Man Utd to win 2-1, at 11/2 and 7/1 respectively with BetUK.

If ever there was a match that looked destined to end up with over 2.5 goals being scored it is tonight’s Champions League match between Barcelona and Chelsea (live on ITV1 at 7.45pm).

Barca tend to deliver for those who love to back the “overs”, and a price of 1.8 on BetUK for over 2.5 goals here looks to be a good investment. Not only are they oozing attacking talent from every position, the Spaniards also have sufficient defensive fragilities to make this a worthwhile punt. While Guardiola’s charges average 2.9 goals per game in the Champions League, they also conceded 1.2 goals per game on average and both home matches against Lyon and Bayern covered not just the over 2.5 goals market but the over 3.5 one too.

Chelsea are not the defensive machine they were under Jose Mourinho and Avram Grant either. Their last two away matches, at Juventus and Liverpool, both saw 4 goals and then there’s the 4-4 draw with Liverpool at Stamford Bridge to consider as well. All in all, this looks like it will be a goalfest and it could certainly pay to have a bet on that eventuality.

Newcastle are in real trouble in second-to-last place in the English Premier League. They need a win so badly but haven’t exactly stepped up a gear since the arrival of former player and Geordie hero Alan Shearer as manager. At 4/5 we don’t think they are very good value to win tonight’s game with Portsmouth (live on Setanta 1 at 8pm).
On paper this home fixture against bottom half Portsmouth is the most winnable of Shearer’s four matches in charge of Newcastle to-date. Though the Magpies have failed to win at St James’s Park in seven games since before Christmas, they have faced all of the Big Four and two of the other top seven in that period.

When bottom half opposition have visited St James’s Park this season, the Magpies have drawn four and lost once in seven. Similarly, Portsmouth have failed to win away to a bottom four team in eight attempts since 2007, drawing five times. Where a drawn outcome may appeal, the stats are even more compelling for both teams to score.

Both teams have scored in all seven of Newcastle’s home games against bottom half teams this term, whilst the same scenario occurred in six of Pompey’s eight matches on the road to bottom four teams since 2007.

So, with all this in mind what we could be looking at here is a high-scoring draw. We suggest backing both the 1-1 and 2-2 scorelines, at 6/1 and 14/1 respectively with BetUK. A sensible play might also be to cover your stakes with a bet on over 2.5 goals at evens too.

Relegation battlers Middlesbrough travel to north London today to play an in-form Arsenal. Despite recent injuries suffered in defence, Arsenal have been extremely difficult to break down at the Emirates - so we expect them to win to nil here. The Gunners have maintained a clean sheet in each of their last seven Premiership matches at home, and have gained seven of their nine league victories at the Emirates this season without conceding a goal. Additionally, Arsenal have won ten and drawn two of 12 matches hosting bottom six opposition in the past two years, winning six times without reply.

Middlesbrough appear to be the perfect opponents for Arsenal to extend their clean sheet home run to eight, and record an eighth home win to nil. Boro’s goal in their 4-1 defeat at Bolton in their last away match was the first goal they have scored on the road in eight matches. Indeed, Middlesbrough have lost all of their last nine league games on the road.

Also, Gareth Southgate’s team have managed just one point from seven matches on the road to Big Four opposition since the start of last season, with three of the last four matches being lost to-nil.  To get some value we are recommending two bets - one on Arsenal to win 2-0 and one on 3-0, at 5/1 and 17/2 respectively with BetUK.

There looks to be some betting value in the over/under market on Saturday evening when Manchester United play host to Spurs in the 5.30pm game live on Setanta. We favour betting on under 2.5 goals here - which is available with BetUK at 9/10.

Rio Ferdinand sat out Wednesday’s game but if he returns to partner Nemanja Vidic in defence here then under 2.5 goals is the way to go. The ‘blip’ of no clean sheets for 5 successive games appears to have been well and truly eradicated, with 3 shut-outs on the spin versus Porto, Everton and Portsmouth – no surprise that this coincided with Ferdinand’s return. As a result, the Reds have been under 2.5 in their last 3 consecutive games and with Arsenal on the horizon next week, we would expect a similarly professional performance from the home side here.

Not that Tottenham can’t play their part – they have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 9 league games so will not roll over for a home procession like many non big four sides do at Old Trafford. Their new-found defensive resiliency does, however, re-enforce the quote on unders and given they have seen 2 goals or less in 8 of their last 12 games (all competitions), a price of 9/10 on that outcome here is worth an investment.

In today’s Premier League match between Chelsea and Everton we really fancy the home team to land the three points that will keep their slender title hopes alive against an Everton side who may run out of steam before the end of 90 minutes. However, Everton should keep them waiting until the second 45 minutes for that all important lead.

David Moyes will be plotting to gain his first Premiership victory away to a Big Four club in 29 attempts since he took over the reigns at Goodison Park when Everton visit Stamford Bridge. Moreover, Everton face a Chelsea team unbeaten at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League against non-Big Four opponents since December 2003.

Prospects of an Everton success then, look remote, particularly in the light of a tough 120 minutes at Wembley on Sunday for the Toffees. However, Everton are no pushovers these days and Chelsea are unlikely to have things all their own way, as they know only too well from their recent encounters here against the blue half of Merseyside.

Everton have been level at the break in four of their last five Premiership visits to Stamford Bridge, and came away with a point in each of their last two matches here. Moreover, the Toffees have been level at half-time in six of their nine visits to Big Four clubs in the league since 2007, eventually losing five times. We are therefore advising a bet on Draw/Chelsea in the half-time/full-time market at 67/20 with BetUK.

Despite both sides suffering setbacks in cup competitions last time out, Liverpool and Arsenal remain the form sides in the Premiership and Rafael Benitez’s side have a formidable domestic home record to fall back on ahead of the visit of the Gunners tonight (8pm Sky).

Although the hosts lost the incredible Champions League tie with Chelsea 7-5 (on aggregate) last week and are without Steven Gerrard again here they are still hot favourites (67/100 with BetUK) to defeat the on-song Londoners. There is a good reason for this: they are unbeaten at Anfield in the league this season and from the 2005/06 season onwards, they have lost just 3 of 73 matches at Anfield – none of them against Arsene Wenger’s side. On top of this, Liverpool have won their last 5 consecutive league games and 3 in a row on Merseyside (all of them to nil) and crucially, have the motivation of going top of the table should they avoid defeat this evening.

But we fancy the draw here as Arsenal have been in such cracking form in the league. They have also won their last 5 consecutive league games and Wenger’s unbeaten run in the Premier League now stands at an impressive 18 fixtures – plus they have already won 2-1 at Chelsea this season so they know what it takes to win at a big four ground. Unfortunately for them the hero that day, Robin van Persie, is out of the match here, as is chief marksman Emmanuel Adebayor. The absence of this pair coupled with Gerrard menas, we think, that the result could be a stalemate on the night. You can back the draw with BetUK at 49/20.

The team that will win the second Indian Premier League (which starts today) is the one which is exactly that - a team. Punters searching for value in a competition where each outfit has as many superstars as each other, have only that to go on. So praise be to Rajasthan Royals, last year’s winners. They have all the ingredients to be successful for a second year running.

They have the continuity that we are searching for. They do not have superstar players coming and going every two weeks, do everything together (they have been bonding in South Africa by watching the current ODI series) and they all have nicknames to help forge relationships between players who are normally bitter rivals.

The brains behind it all is Shane Warne. On the field he is not bad, either. His shrewd captaincy alone is worth at least 20 runs.
Graeme Smith, the South Africa captain, will be charged with scoring the runs while Shaun Tait and Morne Morkel the wickets. In Dimitri Mascarenhas and Yusuf Pathan they have the two best all-rounders, too. At around 11/1 in the outright market we think they are a cracking bet.

In today’s neutral FA Cup semi-final between Man Utd and Everton at Wembley (starts 4pm on IV1) we are likely to see Sir Alex Ferguson’s team dominate. Manchester United have not lost a neutral match in the FA Cup since 1995, winning seven of the 10 matches at full-time, with five of the last seven games finishing with the W/W double result.

A large part of their success can be put down to their ability to keep a clean sheet, doing so in seven of the last nine neutral games. In the Premier League era the Red Devils have made seven FA Cup Semi-Finals, progressing on each occasion, the last three times by the double result and in four of the last five semis progressing against teams in the leagues top 10. That is why we are recommending  at bet on Man Utd/Man Utd in the half-time/full-time market at 7/4 with BetUK.