BetUK Blog

In the Arsenal/Chelsea FA Cup semi-final this evening we really fancy the north London team to get their noses in front of their west London rivals inside 90 minutes. You can bet on Arsenal to beat Chelsea on BetUK at 19/10 on BetUK. Something else we like is a bet on under 2/2.5 goals at evens.

The stats really favour both these picks. In the Premier League era Arsenal have only lost two of 16 neutral matches in the FA Cup, winning nine times. 13 of these matches have seen two goals or fewer and the Gunners have opened the scoring in 11 of these games. Six were against the Big Four (W1-D3-L2) with five ending at -2.5 goals. They have also won six of their last eight Semi-Finals of which six made-up the -1.5 goal market.

Manchester City play host to Hamburg in a Uefa Cup clash tonight. While they have been largely disappointing during their Uefa Cup run Man City have shown enough class to suggest they can win this game 2-0, a result which will take them through on the away goals rule, and that’s why we’re confident they can still qualify. So, at 11/4 with BetUK, our recommendation is a bet on Man City to qualify.

In their 24 home games in all competitions this season they’ve won 15 of them - eight of which being by two goals or more - while they’ve bagged 43 goals. The enigmatic Robinho will return to the side having started on the bench against Fulham and if ever there’s been a time to show his brilliant best side in a City shirt, it’s now.

In tonight’s knife-edge clash between FC Porto and Man Utd the value looks to be in siding with Porto to qualify. The Portuguese team’s unbeaten home record against English clubs in the Champions League (W3-D4) has been well documented since they achieved a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford in the first leg. Moreover, all four of Porto’s home draws against English clubs, were 1-1 or 0-0 and a repeat of either score line will provide Porto with a semi-final berth this year.

Jesualdo Ferreira’s team have lost just once in 14 home games in this competition since October 2005, in a group stage match this season, which failed to hinder their progress. In fact, Porto are unbeaten on their home patch against top eight ranking teams in the Champions League since 2004, winning three of eight, and conceding no more than one goal in any of those eight matches.

Porto supporters will also be pleased to note that on the six previous occasions when a first leg was drawn 2-2, the team in Porto’s position qualified five times, AC Milan’s 2-0 victory at Bayern Munich in 2007 being the exception. These are very compelling stats so we have absolutely no hesitation in recommending a bet on Porto to qualify with BetUK at 9/10. You can see our range of markets for this game here.

In tonight’s Champions League second leg between Chelsea and Liverpool the visitors are 11/1 to go through with BetUK and after their 3-1 mauling by Chelsea at Anfield last week this looks like far too tall an order for the Reds.

Meanwhile Chelsea are 11/8 to win in tonight’s game (live on ITV1 at 7.45pm) but you have to remember they don’t even need to win in order to qualify. Chelsea coach Guus Hiddink is canny enough to know that playing for a draw might prove his side’s downfall so the chances are that his team will come out looking for the win.

Liverpool will draw confidence from John Terry’s absence (he’s suspended) but can they really score three times at Stamford Bridge? The evidence says no – Chelsea have won a tie six times out of six following a first-leg away victory and all five first-leg away victors in the Champions League have progressed over the past 10 years.

Last week’s encounter was an exception in the head-to-head clashes between the sides – the previous eight Champions League encounters had all featured under 2.5 goals, with six of the eight having under 1.5 goals. You can bet on under 2.5 goals with BetUK at evens.

Terry’s absence will leave the hosts vulnerable – and Liverpool will throw the kitchen sink at them – but the visitors’ cavalier attitude will be ideal for Chelsea to exploit. That is why we feel a decent bet is backing Chelsea to score first at 17/20.

In the Saturday evening game between Stoke and Newcastle we have a classic 6-pointer with both teams desperate to avoid relegation. Alan Shearer’s much heralded arrival in the Newcastle hot-seat last week failed to stem the tide of poor results as Chelsea ran out comfortable winners. But this week they will feel they can win, or at least take a point out of the game.

Newcastle have taken just two points from their last six Premiership games, home and away, a run that leaves them three points adrift from safety with just seven matches remaining. Moreover, Newcastle visit a Stoke City team who have recorded three wins from their last four Premiership matches, and have tasted defeat just once in their last six games, home and away. Indeed, Stoke, who will view this match as crucial to their own eventual survival hopes, have proved to be extremely tough opposition at the Britannia Stadium all season. The Potters have won six and drawn three of nine Premiership home games against teams outside of the top six – and we can certainly see them extending their run here. At 7/5 to win they are the value bet.

There are few more betting opportunities more pleasurable than identifying a golf pick in the US Masters and having your pick go all the way, fighting for the title on Sunday evening. At Augusta this year many have decided that Tiger, who has been out for so long through injury, is the one to be on - that he has almost a divine right to win this year. We’re not so sure about this and think the world No 1 might take longer than people think to find winning form in a major.

For us Padraig Harrington has the appearance of a guy who is grateful his big moment is at last on its way. “My whole year so far has been geared towards this week. It’s not that I don’t care about anything else but heading into a major where it’s possible for me to win three on the bounce is, I’m sure you’ll agree, pretty special,” the reigning Open and USPGA champ said in a press conference.

We reckon Padraig has an outstanding chance here. Masters are won by men with sweet short games more than anything else and no-one is better from round the green than Harrington. At 18/1 in the outright market with BetUK he is the value.

Barcelona and Bayern Munich, who meet in tonight’s Champions League quarter-final, are the joint-highest scorers in this season’s contest with 24 goals each from eight games. The hosts of the first leg, Barça, have conceded the most goals (11) of any of the quarter-finalists and, after five attempts, have still to keep a clean sheet on home soil. It is rare that over 2.5 Goals is odds-on for the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, but, even so, it is a firm recommendation because defence is not the first priority of either of these sides. We therefore feel that the best value bet here is to bet on over 2.5/3 goals with BetUK at 4/5. Check here for prices on other markets.

In terms of their strength in depth there is no doubt that Arsenal are a superior team and should come away from tonight’s Champions League quarter-final against Villarreal with a win. However, there are enough reasons to believe that this will be a tricky encounter and while Arsenal have better players we think the value has to be in betting on a draw, available at 41/20 with BetUK.

Technically-gifted Villarreal have lost just twice at home all season and they will be determined to frustrate the Gunners at their intimidating, tight ground, with a view to grabbing the all-important away goal at the Emirates. Given that they have held Man United to four goalless draws in as many attempts, they can probably do so again here, and backing the 0-0 scoreline at 13/2 could certainly look like a clever play by 10pm this evening.

Arsenal’s returning players are still short of match fitness, which means that over the two legs they should go through, but in the meantime backing Under 2.0 goals at 19/20 also has to be recommended.

Man Utd host Porto tomorrow night in their Champions League quarter-final and are available to back at 1.36 for victory in 90 minutes, with Porto at 8.5 and the draw at 4.3. Before bettors pile in it is worth bearing in mind that this won’t necessarily be an easy game for United, coming just two days after their hard fought victory over Aston Villa. However, with so much strength in depth (no finer example than what Federico Macheda showed on Sunday) you have to fancy the home side to take a first leg advantage back to Portugal.

Rio Ferdinand misses out through injury but Nemanja Vidic (who was suspended for Sunday’s league game) returns, as does Wayne Rooney, who was also banned for the Villa game after his late sending-off at Craven Cottage.

But be warned! Porto are on an unbeaten run of 21 games in all competitions stretching back to 1 November last year, and are four points clear in the Portuguese Liga Sagres with just seven games remaining. They certainly won’t be a pushover.

With Man Utd off colour in their last two Premier League games we expect them to come flying back to form today against Aston Villa. With Liverpool now two points ahead in the league United will be very strongly motivated to get back on top and we’re sure Sir Alex Ferguson will have worked his magic on the team in the two weeks since their dismal effort in going down 2-0 to Fulham.

It could even be a Man Utd goalfest so it could well be worth having a few quid on 3-0 and 3-1 United - at 17/2 and 10/1 respectively on BetUK. Man Utd are usually awesome when fully refreshed and on the rebound from poor results so these are likely scorelines.

What about the first and last goalscorer markets? It could be a Cristiano Ronaldo-led demolition of Villa, a team whose bolt is well and truly shot. So backing the Portuguese pest at 7/2 to score either first or last goal could also be the value here, especially as Dimitar Berbatov is injured and Wayne Rooney suspended. See BetUK’s prices for the match here.