BetUK Blog

Today’s FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Everton (live on ITV at 3pm) should be a low-scoring encounter if the formbook is anything to go by. The two league meetings between the sides this season both ended in 0-0 draws, which gives you a hint of what to expect when the sides meet at Wembley – and Everton’s fantastic run to their first final since 1995 has been built on outstanding defensive strength rather than skill and style in attack.

Their penalty shoot-out win over Manchester United in the semi-finals was achieved after a goalless draw in normal and extra-time and both of their games against Liverpool in the fourth round featured under 2.5 goals. Throw in the fact that seven of Everton’s eight games in the league against Big Four sides have featured under 2.5 goals this season, and backing a low-scoring encounter is clearly the way to go. We therefore recommend backing under 2/2.5 goals at 2.05 on BetUK.

Wembley will be hosting the 128th FA Cup Final between Premier League teams Chelsea and Everton on Saturday. In these sort of encounters, it is often the underdog (that would be Everton) who are highly-motivated, while the ‘bigger’ team (Chelsea) are more likely to take the occasion for granted and thus may be vulnerable to an upset. However, Chelsea’s determination to make up for their Champions League failure, and to reward their departing manager Guus Hiddink with a trophy, may give them the edge.

Admirable though Everton’s efforts in the Cup have been this season, they did struggle to overcome a second-string Man Utd side in the semi-final, and will still be without their main creative force (Mikel Arteta) and their best defender (Phil Jagielka). Chelsea can be backed
at 1.72 with BetUK to win the match in 90 minutes and this looks like the value pick from a betting perspective. It is worth backing them now as they could easily be a shorter price by the day of the match.

The Championship Play-Off final (live on Sky Sports 1, 3pm) promises to be a fascinating affair as two of the most contrasting sides in the division go head to head at Wembley. On the one hand we have Sheffield United, whose 3rd place league finish was built on a water-tight defence that conceded just 39 goals in 46 matches, kept 19 clean sheets and leaked just 2 goals in their last 7 games en route to the £60 million match.

On the other hand we have a free flowing Burnley side who scored the second most goals in the Championship (72 in 46 games), only failing to score in 7 of their league matches all season, yet only 1 club in the top 17 conceded more goals than Owen Coyle’s leaky back-line (60 shipped at a 1.3 per match average). It is unsurprising, then, that Burnley were the second highest ‘over 2.5 goals’ side in the league, obliging in 26 of their 46 fixtures.

Burnley are 17/10 to win in 90 minutes while Sheffield are marginal favourites at 6/4 with BetUK. In our view it is worth risking a few quid on Burnley because despite the consistency of Sheffield the momentum appears to be with the slight outsiders. Burnley are a side who comfortably saw off a decent Reading team 3-0 on aggregate in the semi-finals and if they repeat that form they should qualify. Back them to win at the 17/10 in 90 minutes.

In Saturday’s League 2 play-off final between Gillingham and Shrewsbury (live on Sky Sports 1 at 3pm) we reckon backing under 2/2.5 goals is the best bet to make at 4/5. If there are 2 goals scored then half of your stake wins with anything less being a full winner for you – and when you consider that 10 of these teams’ cobined last 14 League 2 games have been under 2.5 goals then the merits of this bet are obvious.

As is often the case with finals, a lack of goals could be a feature of this match. The last two League 2 play-off finals had a combined total of 9 goals but there is significant reason to believe that the 2009 renewal will not be as exciting. Firstly, only one club in the top 10 (Wycombe Wanderers) scored fewer goals than either of these sides – Gillingham managing 58 goals (1.26 per game) and Shrewsbury faring little better with 61 (1.33 gpg).

Both are heavily reliant on their star strikers who provide the bulk of the goals – Grant Holt has scored 20 league goals for Shrewsbury this term while Simeon Jackson bagged 17 for the Gills – and the latter scored both in the 2-1 play-off semi-final victory against Rochdale. And both clubs have pretty solid back-lines – Gillingham keeper Simon Royce has let in just one goal in his last 5 games while the Shrews have the 4th best defence in the division, only conceded 44 goals during the 46 game season.

So, with all this in mind backing under 2/2.5 goals looks like the way to go here.

In tonight’s UEFA Cup Final between Shakhtar Donetsk and Werder Bremen (live on ITV4 at 7.45pm) we could see quite a few goals and our recommendation is to play over 2.5. Goals are normally guaranteed in Werder Bremen matches, as they play an open style of football that leads to chances at both ends. This was never more apparent than in their semi-final second leg against Bundesliga rivals Hamburg: chasing a 1-0 deficit from the first leg, Werder took risks from the outset and eventually won 3-2 to qualify on away goals.

This approach followed the pattern of so many of Werder’s other games this season: 32 of their 50 matches in all competitions (64%) have had over 2.5 goals, underlining their ability to draw opponents of all hues into open, attacking games. Also, finals may be generally cagey affairs but the UEFA Cup has turned into an exception to that rule in recent years: since Galatasaray’s 0-0 draw against Arsenal in 2000, five out of eight finals have had over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes, so clearly teams are willing to take more risks in this showpiece game.

The historic stats, plus Werder’s figures this season and their usual style of play are enough to persuade us that the 19/20 with BetUK on over 2.5 goals could be the best value bet to make tonight.

Tonight’s Premier League encounter between Portsmouth and Sunderland (live on Setanta 1 at 8pm) could be a cagey affair as it is still technically possible for the visitors to be relegated and they will be anxious to avoid defeat. As we saw in last Monday’s relegation ‘six-pointer’ between Newcastle and Middlesbrough, the ensuing tension invariably leads to half-time stalemate. Portsmouth’s supporters are well versed in supping their half-time pint with their side level. Pompey have been all-square at the break in eight of their last 11 Premiership games on the south coast. Similarly, last season, Portsmouth went in at the break level in 11 of their last 15 fixtures at Fratton Park.

As the prospect of relegation has become greater in recent weeks, Sunderland have achieved four half-time draws in their last six league games on the road. Moreover, having failed to score in their last six away matches, Ricky Sbragia will no doubt be content to keep a tight ship until at least half-time. With these stats in mind we’re going to recommend backing Draw/Draw in the Half-time/Full-time market at 4/1 with BetUK.

In tomorrow’s early kick-off game (live on Sky Sports 1 at 12.45pm) between Man Utd and Arsenal we like the look of over 2.5 goals, avalable at 1.85 with BetUK. The Gunners have been over 2.5 goals in 4 of their 5 games against the Big Four this season while United’s home matches against Chelsea and Liverpool were both rich with goals (3-0 and 1-4 respectively).

This is further re-enforced by Arsenal’s flimsy back-line – Wenger’s side have been brutally exposed by quality attacks in recent months, and in their 4 games versus big four sides since April they have conceded 13 times (an average of 3.25 goals per game). So, over 2.5 goals can clearly be supported here with the exceptionally strong trends suggesting a goal-laden encounter.

In the live game on Sky Sports 1 tonight Leeds play host to Millwall for the second leg of their play-off semi-final to see who will go to Wembley to fight it out for a place in next season’s Championship. The stats suggest that Leeds have a very good chance of qualifying for the League One play-off final even though they are going into tonight’s game with a one-goal deficit from the first leg.

In the Premier League era, teams playing at home after losing the first leg (across the three divisions) have gone W19-D5-L9 in the second leg, including a W13-D4-L5 record by those sides with a one-goal deficit. Exactly half of the teams (11/22) who lost the first leg by one goal, as Leeds did in the first leg, have made it through.

Millwall are actually one of the better away sides in League One – only two sides managed more away wins in the regular season (12 from 23 games) – but they lost their last 3 away matches on the trot to throw away any chance of automatic promotion which leads us to think they are vulnerable here. With a capacity 37,000 crowd expected tonight, this will be a hostile atmosphere to say the least after the crowd disturbances from the 1st leg, and how Kenny Jackett’s side cope with this could be the key to who qualifies for Wembley.

We think Leeds can win this by two clear goals to qualify so we are recommending maximum stakes on Leeds to win at 3/5 with BetUK and smaller side bets on the 2-0 and 3-1 scorelines at 6/1 and 12/1 respectively.

The defensive rock that United’s title challenge has been built on is fully functional again with three of their latest four Premiership matches seeing United post a win-to-nil, and the JJB Stadium will pose no fears for United’s in-form team tonight (8pm, Sky Sports 1). The Red Devils have been imperious on the road against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, winning all eight matches, six of which were won without the concession of a goal.

Wigan have gained just two points from 15 matches at the JJB against Big Four teams since winning promotion in 2005, and lost all seven matches, home and away, against Sir Alex Ferguson’s side. Moreover, eight of Wigan’s 13 defeats at home to Big Four opposition, have been suffered without a goal for the home fans to cheer. Wigan have also failed to net in seven of their latest 10 home games against Big Four opposition.

We think Man Utd will win easily here to nil so have a couple of bets on both the 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines, at 5/1 and 15/2 respectively with BetUK.

With both these teams on 31 points and in joint last place in the Premier League the importance of tonight’s North-East derby (live on Sky Sports 1 at 8pm) cannot be understated. Both teams simply have to win. Alan Shearer’s remark after Newcastle’s defeat at Anfield last week was that “the Middlesbrough game is the biggest one of everyone’s career at the club now - no doubt about that!”. This was echoed by Gareth Southgate who rightly sees this game as “the last throw of the dice”.

But where can you find some value for betting purposes? Neither side has scored in their last 3 games, the home side haven’t won at home since December and the away side haven’t won on the road since November – so what does a punter do here? The atrocious scoring record of both teams makes under 2.5 goals instantly appealing – but Boro haven’t kept an away clean sheet since October and with only 3 sides conceding more than Newcastle this season (56 in 35 games), it’s hard to support either defence keeping the scoring low.

Perhaps given the “do or die” nature of this encounter, couple with the teams’ lousy defensive records, makes goals a certainty. We therefore think there could be some value in backing over 2.5 goals with BetUK at 11/10.