BetUK Blog

Arsenal will be feeling distinctly sick after their 3-1 home defeat to Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday night, while Chelsea will be still reeling from their last-gasp elimination at the hands of Barcelona in the same competition. Those exits mean both sides have nothing to play for, making this match the Premier League equivalent of a third-place play-off. 

Arsenal’s players will be equally underwhelmed by the prospect of closing the gap on Chelsea to three points by beating them here, so you have to question the commitment that will be on show on both sides.

In the match market, Arsenal are 31/20 favourites with BetUK, making them slightly shorter than visitors Chelsea, who are trading at 7/4. However, the draw would be our selection at 2/1.

Whatever the result there should be goals. The one trend that stands out a mile is both teams scoring: in the past decade, the two sides have met 29 times in all competitions, and both teams have got on the scoresheet at least once in 24 of those games.  Given the likelihood of a draw and the strong trend that both teams look set to score perhaps the best scorelines to bet on are 1-1 and 2-2, available at 11/2 and 14/1 respectively with BetUK.

There are some great betting opportunites to be had on the play-off matches and this certainly applies to tonight’s Champioinship play-off between Preston and Sheffield United. There could certainly be a few goals if the stats are to be believed. The main trend that emerges from the sides’ relative home and away form is that Preston nearly always score (20 out of 23) on their own patch but regularly concede (14 out of 23) too. The visitors’ figures are convincing as well: Sheffield United have scored in 15 of their 23 away games but conceded in 14 of those games. So with goals looking likely the best play could be to bet on over 2/2.5 goals with BetUK at 19/20.

In the scorers’ market, former Liverpool striker Neil Mellor will attract a lot of attention as he’s netted 10 goals in 33 appearances for Preston this season. We would ignore Mellor, however, as strike partner Jon ‘The Beast’ Parkin looks a better bet after finishing the season in fabulous form.

The 6ft 4in, 14 stone striker has become a cult hero among the Deepdale faithful but is more than just the proverbial big lump up front – he’s netted seven times in his last 11 games, playing an absolutely vital role in North End’s promotion push. Take the 6/1 on Parkin scoring both the first and the last goal.

Hamburg have a big advantage in their Uefa Cup semi-final against Werder Bremen tonight (7.45pm, ITV4), although they could have increased their 1-0 lead in the away leg had Ivica Olic not had two efforts well-saved by Werder Bremen’s in-form goalkeeper Tim Wiese.

It was a disappointing effort from Bremen, whose disappointing league campaign continued with a 1-0 loss at Cologne last weekend. Coach Thomas Schaaf has admitted his players are tired, but will they have enough in the tank for one final onslaught with a trip to Istanbul the prize? We doubt it.
On current form, Hamburg have the momentum and the fact that they are still competing for the Bundesliga title has helped them find and keep to a rhythm in their play. Bremen, on the other hand, are stuck in mid-table and struggled to raise their level in the first leg.

Hamburg, though, are still missing Mladen Petric through injury and are another striker short after Jose Paolo Guerrero picked up a second yellow card. But as a team, they are playing on a different plane to Bremen at the moment, and although Diego is always capable of conjuring a goal out of nothing, we expect the hosts to add to their advantage in what will be an open game.

As Bremen have nothing left to play for and have to go for broke we believe there will be plenty of goals. Our main recommendation is therefore on backing over 2.5/3 goals with BetUK at evens. Alternatively, backing Hamburg/Hamburg in the Half-Time/Full-time market at 7/2 is also tempting.

Barcelona’s 6-2 demolition of Real Madrid at the Bernabeu on Saturday has impressed the bookmakers enough to make the Catalan club favourites to win at Stamford Bridge. However, a trip to England these days represents the ultimate club challenge and Barcelona have the statistics weighted against them.

In the past five seasons, English clubs have progressed nine times from 10 encounters against Spanish clubs. Moreover, English clubs have won all seven games in that period when hosting the second leg. The Premiership’s dominance continues to grow, as evidenced by an unbeaten home record of 12 matches against La Liga’s finest since Chelsea’s final group stage game against Valencia last season - but with eight of those 12 matches finishing all-square.

Chelsea have won 18 and lost just once against Barca (back in 2005/06) in 27 Champions League matches at Stamford Bridge in the past five seasons. The Blues have also won four and lost just one at home to top four-ranked opposition in six matches in the same period. Barcelona’s record on the road to top six ranking opponents in the past five seasons is less impressive, losing half of eight such encounters.

Chelsea’s goalless first leg result also augurs well for their prospects here. There have been six previous 0-0 results in the first leg of a Champions League semi-final, and the home side have won four of the return legs. The home team were knocked out in the other two semi-finals, once through defeat and once via a 1-1 draw. This century, there have been eight all-top five ranked semi-final second legs and the home side have won six and drawn the other two.

All in all, the stats suggest backing Chelsea to win tonight at 7/4 and to qualify for the Final at 6/5 are the best bets to make on BetUK.

In their Champions League semi-final 2nd leg tonight (live on ITV1 at 7.45pm) Manchester United will be well and truly in the driving seat against Arsenal as they have a 1-0 lead from the first leg. However, they will no doubt be aware that three of eight sides with first leg semi-final leads in this competition since the turn of the century have failed to reach the final. More pertinently for bettors in this match, second leg hosts have won six and drawn two of the eight Champions League semi-final ties since 2000.

Naturally enough, United will be more than content with a one-goal defeat provided they score, whilst even a 1-0 defeat will send the match into extra-time and eventually, penalties. For Arsenal, the equation is far simpler; at the very least they have to win. The Gunners can point to an unbeaten 24 match run in the Champions League in front of their own fans during the past five seasons, in which time their record against top eight teams is W3-D2-L0.

The stats suggest Arsenal can win this game even if they don’t qualify so we are recommending a bet on Arsenal to win in 90 minutes at a price of 33/20 on BetUK. The other bet we like is Arsenal to score first at 21/20.

Hull City’s fall from grace this season has been remarkable. The Tigers were third in the table at the start of November, yet a run of just one win and eight points from 18 games since mid-December makes Phil Brown’s team everybody’s favourite opponents. However, betting on Aston Villa to win tonight’s Premier League match makes no appeal as they are experiencing their own nightmare run. Martin O’Neill’s side have failed to win in nine Premiership matches, losing more than half of those games in the process.

At least Villa Park season ticket holders have still been entertained with goals, if not a winning side, in recent weeks. In nine home games since the start of December, Villa have featured in six matches with at least three goals, with four of those matches settling the +3.5 goals market. Moreover, all four of Villa’s home games against current bottom six teams saw the three-goal barrier broken, with half beating the four-goal mark. Indeed, Villa settled the +3.5 goals market in three of their last four games at Villa Park last season against bottom six finishers, and will want to end the season in similarly entertaining vein.

Our recommendation is therefore to bet on a goal rush and back over  2.5/3 goals on BetUK at 19/20.

With Liverpool focusing all of their efforts on the Premiership they are fully deserving of their price of 2/9 with BetUK in the match odds. The Reds are the form team in the league, winning 6 of their last 7 matches, and the probable return of Steven Gerrard is clearly the best news Rafael Benitez could have hoped for this week.

At Anfield in particular, Liverpool have been sweeping aside opposition sides with consummate ease in recent weeks – before the 4-4 draw with Arsenal they had won their last 3 consecutive home matches to nil, scoring 11 times in the process. We think this trend can continue and are recommending betting on the 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines at 6/1 and 5/1 respectively.

The Reds have won 7 of their 17 home PL games without conceding,  and Newcastle’s woeful scoring record firmly re-enforces our selections. They have scored just just 4 goals in their last 9 matches, including none in their last two against worse sides than Liverpool (Tottenham and Portsmouth). The hosts have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches versus sides outside the top four so a win to nil looks to be on the cards here.

Tomorrow’s 2000 Guineas, the first classic of the British flat racing season, brings with it the promise of summer and is often a gauge as to how trainers’ wannabe 3-year-olds have faired over the winter break. You can see it live on Channel 4 at 3.10pm on Saturday afternoon.

One thing for sure: Aiden O’Brien and his Ballydoyle operation won’t be far off the pace, what with winning three of the last four 2000 Guineas. By virtue of the fact that O’Brien (Or AOB as he is known in horse racing circles) trains two of the first three in the betting I’m not exactly revealing who shot JFK by saying he’s got a greatchance in the race.

However, from what we have heard here at BetUK O’Brien attended a racing dinner last week, and apparently the trainer said he believes Rip Van Winkle could be among the best horses he’s EVER trained. If that’s true then the 7/2 currently available could look like a very big price at 3.15pm tomorrow.