Expect goals in Hull/Man City
Sunday’s live game on Sky (4pm K/O) sees Manchester City travel to this season’s surprise package - Hull. From a psychological point of view Hull have a distinct advantage, because they were preparing for a dogfight from the moment promotion to the Premier League was won. A run of three straight defeats is disappointing for them – but mentally the players have always expected that type of run of results. The same cannot be said for City’s players, who appear ill-equipped for a trip to an unwelcoming venue to face physical, resilient hosts, as awaits them here.
Taking all factors into account we make Hull narrow favourites – which is why the 17/10 available on BetUK is terrific value. Man City are an implausibly short 7/5, with the draw at 9/4 so the the price on the hosts looks too good to miss.
An even better bet than a home victory, however, is over 2.5 goals. Such an outcome has been a consistent feature of games involving these two sides this season – 20 of 24 relevant fixtures (10 out of 12 games for both Hull and Man City) have had three goals or more this season, making the price of 4/5 on overs tremendous value. Even looking solely at Hull’s home games and Man City’s away games, the stats stand up: four of Hull’s six fixtures at the KC Stadium and four of City’s six games on the road have had over 2.5 goals.
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