Leeds can sweep Millwall aside in play-off semi-final
In the live game on Sky Sports 1 tonight Leeds play host to Millwall for the second leg of their play-off semi-final to see who will go to Wembley to fight it out for a place in next season’s Championship. The stats suggest that Leeds have a very good chance of qualifying for the League One play-off final even though they are going into tonight’s game with a one-goal deficit from the first leg.
In the Premier League era, teams playing at home after losing the first leg (across the three divisions) have gone W19-D5-L9 in the second leg, including a W13-D4-L5 record by those sides with a one-goal deficit. Exactly half of the teams (11/22) who lost the first leg by one goal, as Leeds did in the first leg, have made it through.
Millwall are actually one of the better away sides in League One – only two sides managed more away wins in the regular season (12 from 23 games) – but they lost their last 3 away matches on the trot to throw away any chance of automatic promotion which leads us to think they are vulnerable here. With a capacity 37,000 crowd expected tonight, this will be a hostile atmosphere to say the least after the crowd disturbances from the 1st leg, and how Kenny Jackett’s side cope with this could be the key to who qualifies for Wembley.
We think Leeds can win this by two clear goals to qualify so we are recommending maximum stakes on Leeds to win at 3/5 with BetUK and smaller side bets on the 2-0 and 3-1 scorelines at 6/1 and 12/1 respectively.
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