Defensive quality of Gillingham and Shrewsbury should prevent goals
In Saturday’s League 2 play-off final between Gillingham and Shrewsbury (live on Sky Sports 1 at 3pm) we reckon backing under 2/2.5 goals is the best bet to make at 4/5. If there are 2 goals scored then half of your stake wins with anything less being a full winner for you – and when you consider that 10 of these teams’ cobined last 14 League 2 games have been under 2.5 goals then the merits of this bet are obvious.
As is often the case with finals, a lack of goals could be a feature of this match. The last two League 2 play-off finals had a combined total of 9 goals but there is significant reason to believe that the 2009 renewal will not be as exciting. Firstly, only one club in the top 10 (Wycombe Wanderers) scored fewer goals than either of these sides – Gillingham managing 58 goals (1.26 per game) and Shrewsbury faring little better with 61 (1.33 gpg).
Both are heavily reliant on their star strikers who provide the bulk of the goals – Grant Holt has scored 20 league goals for Shrewsbury this term while Simeon Jackson bagged 17 for the Gills – and the latter scored both in the 2-1 play-off semi-final victory against Rochdale. And both clubs have pretty solid back-lines – Gillingham keeper Simon Royce has let in just one goal in his last 5 games while the Shrews have the 4th best defence in the division, only conceded 44 goals during the 46 game season.
So, with all this in mind backing under 2/2.5 goals looks like the way to go here.
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