Can Henrythenavigator even run 1m4f?
This year’s Epsom Derby, to be run over the famous undulations of the Surrey racecourse on June 7, has been a real head-scratcher for punters. There was a lot of interest in Henry Cecil’s Twice Over, who was backed in to 4/1 for the famous race, but then flopped in the best Derby trial of them all - the Dante at York. Twice Over was exposed as a non-stayer as the York race is run over 1m4f, the same distance as the Epsom showpiece. He won’t even be contesting the race and those bettors who piled in at 4s must be feeling a bit foolish.
It’s highly likely we will be saying the same thing soon about all those who are currently wading into Henrythenavigator following his win today in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Just because trainer Aidan O’Brien, who won the Epsom Derby in 2001 and 2002, says the horse might run at Epsom has caused the horse to be backed into 5/1 already. This is ridiculous as Henrythenavigator probably couldn’t get 1m4f in a horsebox. His sire is Kingmambo, who was a miler, although his dam is out of the legendary Sadler’s Wells (see post of May 13). It is also worth pointing out that the Irish 2000 Guineas, being run over just a mile, rarely throws up the winner of the Epsom Derby. You have to go all the way back to Grundy in 1975 to find a horse who won both races.
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