BetUK Blog

The Ebor is always one of the betting highlights of the summer and the bookies probably love it too – 4 of the last 7 winners have returned 20/1 or bigger!

Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years but we think it is very difficult to get away from this year’s favourite - Changingoftheguard.

Aidan O’Brien has only captured the Ebor once before, with Mediterranean in 2001, who co-incidentally was also the last 3-year-old winner. However, there is no denying the talent of Johnny Murtagh’s mount this year. An impressive big distance winner of his last 2 starts in Ireland, he has looked right at home on quicker ground so far which should prove ideal.

Granted, he has never run this far before but English and Irish St Leger entries tell you that Ballydoyle are confident stamina should not be an issue. O’Brien just missed out on the Ebor last year with Honolulu and Changingoftheguard looks well capable of going one better if the race pans out right.

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It’s always great to see a Henry Cecil runner prominent for a Group 1 and in Midday he has a great chance to win Saturday’s Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

It’s her first time up against the older fillies but historically it’s the 3-year-olds who hold sway, winning 17 of the last 22 renewals, and the Oaks second should be able to continue this record with Sariska not around.

Remember she finished almost 4½ lengths clear of Rainbow View at Epsom and though she was well off the winner when 3rd in the Irish Oaks, the heavy ground did her no favours at all that day.

A return to normal going here will of course be ideal and we haven’t seen anything to suggest that she isn’t the best 3-year-old filly out there after Sariska and she can confirm this by landing the Nassau for her legendary trainer.

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If you want to have a value bet now for the weekend we suggest you get on Tartan Bearer to win Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at 7/2 as the horse is sure to be backed on the day and should go off shorter. Michael Stoute’s four-year-old is even less exposed than the three-year-olds set to line up having raced only seven times, just twice this year.

On the ground front he should be fine as he has won on good ground, good to soft and good to firm ground too so seems to go on any surface. He has already run a cracker at Ascot this season when not quite able to topple the classy Vision D’Etat in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and this extra two furlongs can only be in his favour.

He has reportedly been working best of the Stoute trio in the last couple of weeks and although champion jockey Ryan Moore, who has the pick of the Stoute yard, is said to be keener on the chances of favourite Conduit we think the value is to back Tartan Bearer now. This horse was second in last year’s Derby to New Approach and is by far the classiest animal in the race.

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For stats lovers who like to bet in-running we have unearthed something that might be of interest. Nine of the last 10 Open winners, who had played at Augusta that year, finished in the top eight of the Masters. Those who were inside the top eight at Augusta this year Angel Cabrera, Chad Campbell, Kenny Perry, Tiger Woods and Steve Stricker.

Given Tiger and Chad missed the cut and Stricker (125/1) and Perry (150/1) are distinct outsiders it could pay to back in-running the only one left who looks to be in with a great chance, namely Angel Cabrera at 25/1 with BetUK.

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Only one day to go before the action starts in The Open at Turnberry in Scotland. While the last posting suggested it could be worth backing Colin Montgomerie at a huge price to cause an upset it set us thinking about who else in the field can go close at a big price.

Why not give one or more of these a go at huge odds. Stephen Ames is regarded as one of the best players in the world when it’s windy, which is more or less guaranteed at Turnberry. He appears to be in great form at present and has finished in the Top 20 at both of this season’s majors so far. At 125/1 with BetUK he looks to be faor too big a price.

Darren Clarke is another ideally suited to a links course such as Turnberry. With six Top 15 finishes in The Open he seems to find his form in this event and once again, at 125/1, he is real value to go close here.

One theory trotted out year in year out by golf pundits is that you should never discount the guy who was runner-up in the preceding event. Loch Lomond runner-up Gonzalo Fernandez Castano could therefore go close again and at 125/1 with BetUK we are certainly interested in giving him a go.

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With The Open starting at Turnberry in Ayrshire, Scotland on Thursday the race is on to find a player who will be able to play this links course adeptly. The first point to make is that as The Open hasn’t been played at Turnberry for 15 years, many of the current contenders will be track novices. As such, it could be a very open Open, so to speak.

When conditions are unfamiliar to the field it plays even further into Tiger Wood’s hands so he will be a popular choice. However, at 9/4 he is too short to back and there could be value in looking to some other bigger-priced players. For those of a romantic persuasion, it looks like Colin Montgomerie is back to his fighting weight which is usually of benefit to his game. With no pressure and a course he grew up beside, could he go one better than Greg Norman last year? At 200/1 with BetUK it is worth a small punt to find out.

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With it being so hard to split the pair we believe a better option is to back the chance of a tie-break in the first set. Both players are serving incredibly well and top the tournament tables for points won on first serve at 82% for Serena and 81% for Venus. Since the start of 2005 the sisters have played eight times with five of the matches containing a tie-break and in their head-to-head Grand Slam record six of their 11 matches have contained at least one tie-break.

Put half your stake on Venus to win the first set 7-6 (at 6/1 with BetUK) and the other half on Serena to win the first set 7-6 (again at 6/1 with BetUK). Alternatively a decent-sized wager on there to be a tie-break at any stage of the match is available at 5/4, which looks nailed on.

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Friday is men’s semi-final day at Wimbledon and while we see Roger Federer coming through his semi against Tommy Haas the German player will be no pushover. Although Fed leads Haas 11-3 in their meetings last time they played, on the clay at Roland Garros in Paris last month, the German took Fed to five sets, winning the first two. Friday’s match too could be a close one.

Haas is a much better player and in better form than his world rank of 34 suggests and thanks to good performances here, in Halle and at Roland Garros, he is sure to be moving up the rankings in the near future. The 31-year old is the oldest player left in the draw and has also been involved in the highest number of tie-breaks (5) of the remaining four players. He has won seven of his 10 tie-breaks on grass this year.

This suggests he is well capable of taking a set or more off Federer so for betting purposes we like backing Federer to win 3-1 and 3-2, at 11/4 and 9/1 respectively with BetUK.

At Wimbledon today we really fancy Amelie Mauresmo to beat Dinara Safina, the World No 1, currently 6/5 with BetUK. Mauresmo is playing better then she has in a while and Safina has always had a rough time at Wimbledon, never getting past this stage of the tournament before. Mauresmo, however, has gone all the way and won the women’s singles title back in 2006. “Momo” seems to come alive at Wimbledon and should be able to beat Safina with conditions in her favour.